23 / 2006

Nvidia’s $750 Billion in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears

TL;DR

Nvidia is preparing a fresh round of AI deals worth more than $750 billion, according to Bloomberg. Skeptics see the pattern they have been warning about: capital circulating between the chipmaker and its customers, making demand and valuations look larger than they are. Whether the investments reflect real demand or manufacture it remains an open question.

Nauti's Take

The number has a real upside: as long as Nvidia keeps investing at this pace, compute stays widely available and price pressure on models stays high, an advantage for anyone who buys AI rather than builds it. The limit shows up in the books, since a supplier financing its own buyers makes genuine growth hard to separate from accounting.

Anyone betting a business on a single AI vendor should know the alternatives.

Briefingshow

Circular financing is tricky because it only shows up on the way down: as long as capital keeps moving, revenue and demand look real. For anyone who merely buys AI, more rides on this than a stock-market argument, namely inference pricing, GPU availability, and whether a given vendor still exists in two years. Which is why it pays to review dependencies on single models and clouds now rather than in an emergency.

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