Global trade grew in 2025 despite Trump tariffs, two reports show
TL;DR
Global goods trade grew 4.6% in 2025 despite Trump tariffs, according to the WTO's latest outlook released this week.
Key Points
- China rerouted exports away from the US toward Europe and emerging markets, cushioning the tariff impact.
- The AI investment boom drove a surge in US semiconductor and related product imports – a structural driver often missing from headlines.
- McKinsey's separate report reaches the same conclusion: trade patterns shifted, but the deeply interconnected world economy held firm.
Nauti's Take
Two credible sources – WTO and McKinsey – push back on tariff doom narratives with hard numbers. That is not an all-clear: tariffs raise costs, force detours, and hit specific sectors hard.
But the underlying structure of the globalized economy is more resilient than many commentators want to admit. The AI angle is particularly striking: chip demand drove US imports so strongly that it partially offset tariff drag – an unplanned effect that illustrates how technology-driven demand surges can override geopolitical friction.
Context
The narrative of tariffs as a global growth killer is too simplistic. 2025 shows clearly that tariffs reshape routes and winners, but do not destroy trade volume outright. For the tech sector, the AI boom has created structural semiconductor demand that pushes US import figures up while positioning countries like Taiwan and South Korea as net winners.
Anyone planning trade or supply chain strategy needs to account for these redistribution effects.
Sources